Analytical overview of the markets
What happened yesterday …
The BIST100 index, which started yesterday in a horizontal fashion, fell to the 1.074 level during the session, and closed the session at 1.076, down 0.70%. The yield of Turkey’s two-year bonds remained unchanged compared to the previous closing level of 13.22%, and the yield on the 10-year bond remained steady at 13.51%. The interest rate on 10-year US bonds is traded at 0.638%. While the USD / TL pair rose to a record high of 7.45 yesterday, the EUR / TL was in the 8.72-8.84 range. Turkey’s debt repayment swap rates denominated in dollars for a 5-year period are traded at the level of 499.6.
The US indices, which started the session negatively with the impact of the economic veri, closed with heavy losses led by a drop in technology stocks. At the close, the Dow Jones index declined 2.78% to 28,293 points, the S & P500 index declined 3.51% to 3,455 points, and the Nasdaq index declined 4.96% to 11,458 points. While European stock markets closed the session negatively, Spain’s IBEX35 index diverged from its peers.
According to TURKSTAT veri, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.86% month-on-month and 11.77% year-on-year in August. The Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) was 2.35% month-on-month and 11.53% year-on-year.
The total foreign exchange reserves of the Turkish Central Bank decreased by $ 3.84 billion last week, to $ 41.6 billion. Accordingly, gold reserves decreased by 235 million dollars to 43 billion 42 million dollars, and total reserves decreased by 4 billion and 75 million dollars to 84 billion and 636 million dollars.
In the United States, the number of applications for wages for unemployment reached 881,000, less than the expected 950,000, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was 57.0 in August. (Expect: 56.9)
Germany’s services sector PMI was 52.5, above expectations at 50.8 in August, and the composite PMI was 54.4 above expectations at 53.7.
Retail sales in the Eurozone were expected to increase month over month in July, declining by 1.3% and increasing by 0.4% year on year. The services PMI veri was 5035 in August, while the composite PMI was 51.9. (Expect: 50.1-51.6)
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Consumer Price Index reached 1.2% annually in July.
In China, August composite PMI veri rose to 55.1, remaining in optimistic territory for the fourth consecutive month. The services PMI veri decreased from 54.1 to 54.0.
What do we expect today …
Asian equity markets are following a negative course at the start of the new day. The Dow Jones Futures Index is down 0.25%. In the morning hours, it is trading $ 7.44 / TL, EUR / TL, 8.81, EUR / USD equivalent, 1.18, dollar index, 92.81, Brent oil at $ 43.73 per barrel. An ounce of gold was trading at 1.935 USD and a gram of 462.92 pounds.
Today, there is not a large veri flow in the country, highlighting factory orders overseas in Germany and non-farm employment veri in the US.
What do we expect in the long term …
With a current F / C multiplier of 9.16, the BIST100 is discounted 2.2% compared to the 5-year average of 9.4. Turkey witnessed the lowest levels of reducing the increasing market fluctuations in 2018 and 2019 in the Istanbul Private Stock Exchange recently, despite setting a new record by achieving a significant recovery in parallel with the Corona virus and the küresel due to movements in the oil price index since 2017. Although there is a discount at the current multiplier, the uncertainties are increasing in the coming period, which may increase the downside risks of BIST.
The Central Bank of Tunisia, which lowered its policy rate to 12.00% by reducing its policy rate by 1,200 basis points in the second half of 2019, 75 at the first meeting of 2020 held on January 16, 50 on February 19, two days before the meeting Planned and held on March 17th. It lowered the weekly repo rate to 8.25%, down a total of 375 basis points by cutting 100 basis points on April 22 and 50 basis points on May 21. At the June 25, July 23 and August 20 meetings, they were unchanged, leaving the weekly repurchase rate at the current level of 8.25%.
According to the TCMB Forecast Poll, the CPI rose 0.86% in August. It is expected to increase by 0.92% in September, 10.82% at the end of 2020 and 970% in 12 months. Again, in the same survey, the USD / TL is expected to be 7.34 at the end of 2020 and 7.68 after 12 months. The current account deficit is expected to reach $ 17.3 billion by the end of 2020 and $ 20.7 billion in 2021. GDP growth is projected to be -1.6% and 4.3% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The weekly repo rate of the Turkish Central Bank is expected to remain at 8.43% at the end of the current month, dropping to 9.06% after 3 months, to 9.20% after 6 months and 9.10% after 12 months. The 10-year bond yield, currently at 13.51%, is expected to stabilize at 12.72% after 12 months.
Bim Compound Stores Inc. (BIMAS; News Effect: Neutral)
11,000 shares were repurchased at an average price of 67,4750 TL on 03.09.2020 and BIMAS shares owned by the company amounted to 5,608,893. (Its ratio to the company’s capital is 0.9237%)
Emlak Konut GYO (EKGYO; News Effect: Neutral)
T. Owned by the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, Housing Development Department; Regarding the purchase of development plots with an area of about 689,049.05 square meters of immovable property with a total area of 1,971,786.92 square meters in the Firuzkoy area in the Avcilar area of Istanbul at a price of 1,420,000,000 TL (VAT exempt); The company and T.C. A protocol was signed on August 28, 2020 between the Ministry of Environment and Construction and the Housing Development Administration.
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